#31 - Are We There Yet?

Back in August last year, I took the time to subjectively dissect the EV market (#8 - No Hablo Eléctrico). Specifically, I wanted to understand why the likes of Elon Musk and Tesla had unequivocally chained themselves to the idea that electric mobility was the future of society as we knew it. You see while it is perfectly rationale to assume a couple of kinks or gaps in the viability of any new technology or business at its outset, for me there appeared to be a series of terminal issues in its sustainability. Things like the provision of raw materials for battery production or the ability to generate enough electricity to fuel a nation of electric cars all came into question. What’s more, it was not just a case of people unable to provide a solution to these problems right now but instead, the questions were being swept under the carpet in preference of short term-ism and its associated monetary rewards.

Now while I may appear to be wedded to a past era when it comes to the cars we are selling at Contemporary Classics, I am also a huge advocate of innovation and technological development. I believe that our ability to develop new and better ways of doing things can often act as the perfect insight into the craftsmanship of the methods used by our forefathers. A Ferrari F40 is not just an automotive icon now because it was an incredible car at its launch all those years ago but because its engineering magnificence is only enhanced when compared to its modern day, technologically ground breaking descendant, the Ferrari La Ferrari.

My conclusion to all of this was that the EV fad we are currently experiencing was and still is just a stepping stone to a more sustainable and viable longer term energy source for the future. If Elon is backing Electric, my horse in this race is Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology.

So let’s focus on the cons before the pros……get the bad stuff and myths out the way early doors. Firstly, many will be quick to highlight that here on good old planet earth we have an abundance of hydrogen…… that’s not strictly accurate. While we may have a plentiful supply of hydrogen linked elements such as H20 as well as other organic compounds and hydrocarbons found in fossil fuels, neat Hydrogen gas does not occur naturally anywhere in the world. Instead it is created by a process called “reforming” which relies on heat to separate the hydrogen from its compound or “electrolysis” which as the name suggests relies on electricity to separate out the elements…..and so we hit our first speed bump. The creation of hydrogen requires electricity which obviously has an associated cost. That said, like all new energy sources, the refining of technology and benefits from economies of scale means analysts predict the cost of producing hydrogen will fall to be in line with that of diesel and petrol within the next 5 years. What’s more, unlike electricity which has no by-product through consumption (ie once you have used it, it’s gone) the burning of hydrogen results in the creation of pure water (H20). This is one of the reasons NASA have relied on it for so long to fuel their space shuttles. Not only is it a high energy fuel which produces almost no pollution but they are also able to channel the by-product to the crews on board as drinking water.

Which brings me to bad point number 2…….the stability of hydrogen. Most will have seen the tragic scenes of what happens when a space shuttle launch goes wrong. So while hydrogen can be considered a high energy fuel, it is consequently a highly flammable fuel. Allow us to geek out for a moment…….

Hydrogen atoms are innately volatile because they have a single proton at their core and a single electron at their lowest energy level. This means that unlike inert gases which are stable because they have either lots of electrons or no electrons in their lowest energy level, as atom’s go, hydrogen is extremely unstable. So one of the biggest headaches to overcome when commoditizing hydrogen into an everyday usable fuel source is stabilizing it.

The solution to this challenge is actually quite fascinating. Unlike a regular petrol fuel tank that will have an extremely low pressurization level (anywhere from .25-3 psi), hydrogen fuel cell tanks are pressurized up to 10,000 psi!! This means that if a hydrogen fuel tank was ever compromised, with hydrogen being 16 times lighter than air, the hydrogen gas would instantly dissipate into the atmosphere unlike conventional gasoline which because of its higher density and lower pressure storage would simple pool under the fuel tank thus creating a larger fire hazard. In fact a common misconception of the Hindenburg airship disaster was that the hydrogen caused the devastating fire. In fact the fire was due to the airships diesel engines catching fire along with flammable lacquer coating on the outside of the dirigible. So hydrogen fuel cell technology is actually a much safer fuel source compared to traditional gasoline and diesel options.

Now you have your hydrogen car, how easy is it to refuel and how far can it go? There are 3 key factors to consider regarding this; how many refuelling stations are there, how long does it take to refuel and what is my expected range between fills. At time of writing, there are currently only 13 hydrogen fuelling stations in the UK with another 2 in the planning stages……underwhelming I know. BUT unlike EV charging stations which thanks to Mr Musk have resulted in a smorgasbord of different types of sockets for charging along with different voltage requirements, in a similar vein to conventional fuel nozzles, it’s a one size fits all situation for hydrogen. Furthermore, it is (and will continue to be) very easy to repurpose conventional fuel station tanks for use as hydrogen stores……so rolling out the network globally will be easily achieved.

Now let’s talk refuelling times and range. With a conventional fossil fuel burning vehicle, your time at the pump will rarely exceed 3-5 minutes. An EV vehicle will require you to be stationary and plugged in for anywhere from 1-3 hours depending on the type of charger you have connected yourself to. A hydrogen fuel cell car will leave you at the pump for around 15 minutes……so a much more acceptable pitstop proposition and what’s more, a time period that is only likely to diminish as more R&D is thrown at it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see refuelling times in line with that of traditional 95 Octane cars in a couple of years. With regards to range, a Tesla will achieve ~350 miles, a Nissan Leaf claims ~150 miles and a new hydrogen powered Hyundai Nexo has a claimed range of 400+ miles. I will caveat the Nexo’s figure by saying that road tests have suggested closer to 350 miles is more realistic but that is also in part due to inefficiencies with fuel pumps not truly brimming tanks to their maximum (again an issue that can and will be ironed out over time).

So on paper, the negative points are not actually that sinister and in the main, easily rectifiable. But how does a hydrogen fuel cell car actually operate……what is the science behind this water powered witchcraft. In essence a hydrogen fuel cell car is the same as a conventional hybrid powered car the only difference being you have swapped out the petrol engine used to charge the batteries with a hydrogen fuel cell. Within the vehicles Fuel Cell Stack, hydrogen gas mixes with oxygen found naturally in the air, reacts and generates energy/electricity to power the electric motors in the car. Not only does this allow the car to weigh less and be more nimble than an EV car with its heavy battery packs lining the chassis but it also means that the job of replacing batteries (when they eventually need changing) is a much less cumbersome and a more cost effective solution in hydrogen fuel cell cars. What’s more, like an EV car, performance is 100% linked to the power from the electric motors. So in principle, gravity defying performance figures are equally achievable via fuel cell cars without the added cumbersome weight of batteries to lug around.

And so I return to my initial question……Are We There Yet? My answer is as ostensibly vague as the question…..yes with a sprinkling of no. Would I go out and buy a hydrogen fuel cell car…..yes I would but I would do so in the knowledge that there are still some sizeable teething issues to iron out. A sporadic network of fuelling stations being the largest inconvenience to overcome. But even if I have to extend my journey an hour to find one, I am still likely to be better off than if I was waiting for my EV car to charge. So go buy a hydrogen fuel cell car and become part of the real solution to the future of sustainable personal mobility.

Happy Motoring,

Greg